Following the downturn in international student recruitment to Australia, Canada, UK and USA, are TNE partnership opportunities across Africa and the Middle East set to rise?
International students have long favoured Australia, Canada, UK and USA (‘ACUU’) as study destinations. However, there’s been a steep drop in international recruitment across ACUU recently. The impact has triggered a financial crisis, with redundancies, hiring freezes, and course closures. Whilst attention currently focuses on stability and efficiencies, the crisis creates new incentives for TNE partnerships in Africa and the Middle East.
Whilst the problems facing ACUU universities are multiple, a major cause is a decline in international students. In 2024 the UK saw a 16% drop in study visa applications, Australia a 23% decline, and Canada a collapse of 45%. For the USA, there’s been a 40% fall in international interest since Trump came to office. Macro-economic factors, high tuition fees/costs of living, and increasingly hostile immigration policy have led many to reconsider study destinations.
A key question is whether the sharp drop in numbers signals a shift in sentiment towards tertiary education or something else. It’s unlikely that people’s appetite for tertiary education has changed drastically in the space of 12 months. It’s more likely that those who planned to study at an ACUU university have a) continued studies in their home country, b) opted for a closer/cheaper international option, or c) deferred studies/gone into employment. If a) or b) are widespread, there is a strong case for ACUU universities to have a greater presence within or close to major sending nations.
How GCC, Africa and ACUU can mutually benefit from more TNE
If recent admissions data is the start of a longer-term trend, then ACUU universities must adapt and take their offering to where international students will access it.
China and India are consistently top sending countries to ACUU, with Cameroon, Malaysia, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, and Vietnam also top senders. Given this list, opportunities lie in Asia and Africa. Although notably absent, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries provide compelling investment opportunities.
Whilst GCC and Africa are yet to attract large numbers of students born in ACUU, they do recruit significant numbers from the top sending nations to ACUU universities. GCC and Africa tend to be cheaper, geographically closer to sending nations, and many of these countries are growing their tertiary education sectors at unprecedented speed, heavily investing in quality and excellence and, importantly, many of these countries are open to more TNE.
For Africa, much attention is given to student migration away from the continent, but little is said about mobility within or to Africa. A 2022 Campus France report notes that Sub-Saharan Africa is the second most popular destination for Sub-Saharan students studying abroad (Europe first, North America third). Nigeria, South Africa and Ethiopia are favoured destinations. Egypt is an increasingly desirable destination (international enrolments soared 117% in 2023/24!) Mauritius is also a sought-after study destination, due to its high levels of safety, climate, infrastructure, and multicultural appeal.
Many countries that send large numbers of students to ACUU universities have enclaves in Dubai. The city is also a popular destination for ACUU nationals. The Knowledge & Human Development Authority recently set out its Education 33 vision, announcing plans to increase international students by 50%. Saudi Arabia, in Saudi Vision 2030, made its pledge to be a regional education hub, demonstrated by a commitment to international students and TNE. Saudi and Dubai committed over $100 billion to developing their education sectors in the coming years. Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar all see their education system as the gateway to becoming a knowledge-based economy and put a major emphasis on increasing TNE partnerships.
Reflecting on the above, the following factors present a strong case for African and GCC countries playing a central role in the delivery of tertiary education globally, and to be at the forefront of ACUU TNE strategies:
- Cost: although not universally ‘cheap’, it can be more cost-effective to both invest (institutionally) and study in most African and GCC cities compared to ACUU (see examples above – Lancaster University Ghana , Middlesex University Mauritius, UPEI Cairo Campus, and Carnegie Mellon University). Note, major TNE initiatives come at huge cost and risk!
- Location: GCC and Africa are located between ACUU and key international student sending countries, allowing for shorter and cheaper travel
- Established networks: many top sending countries have a large student and general population presence in many African and GCC countries
- Growth: tertiary education in GCC and Africa is in growth mode, with significant growth in private universities and heavily financed state interventions in GCC countries
- Reputation: perhaps one of the main counter-arguments, quality and excellence, is improving and countries are investing heavily in research and teaching excellence. With more high-quality TNE will come an even stronger reputation.
Looking to the future
The experience of living in ACUU cities is a major draw for international students and this can’t be replicated. But brand, reputation, and excellence are also major draws and these can be replicated in other locations. Many TNE partnerships already exist between ACUU, GCC and African countries. It is not a new nor novel concept, and does not always prove to be effective (Calgary closing Qatar campus, Aberystwyth’s failed Mauritian venture). However, the recent decline in international student recruitment in ACUU provides an urgency to diversify income and student recruitment streams. Combining this with the aims of many African and GCC countries to increase student numbers, enhance quality and excellence, and improve their global reputation, there is a mutually beneficial opportunity to explore more TNE partnerships.
